The magic of simple rules of thumb
The magic of simple rules of thumb
Life on EASY mode
The magic of simple rules of thumb ~ 5 minutes
Straightforward rules of thumb are my secret sauce because:
They are easy to understand and communicate.
They reliably increase your chances of success.
They allow for speed, agility, and grabbing opportunities while reducing risks and regrets.
They only apply when the stakes are low enough. After considering the Consequences, Risks, and Costs of a decision, the stakes won't ruin me even if things go completely wrong.
***Note: Simple rules of thumb are not appropriate for every decision. Some decisions carry high risk, impact, or cost. These are serious decisions. Every "Serious" decision deserves your full attention.***
Since we are examining rules of thumb, here's my rule of thumb for triaging decisions:
If a decision has any of the following characteristics:
High impacts on myself, or others
High risks (financial or other including reputational risks)
High costs or other serious consequences
Permanent or long-lasting effects upstream or down
Irreversible or impossible to try out in a small pilot
It is an important decision. - Take it through a complete decision process.
The 80% Rule
If a decision does not have any of these characteristics, I consider it an everyday decision and I am free to use good rules of thumb to speed up my decisions.
Most decisions are simple and low-risk and do not need a formal decision process. Well-chosen rules of thumb will help position you properly to avoid or reduce risks and take advantage of opportunities. This is the zone where 80% to 90% of your decisions will live.
What if you could make those remaining decisions just a little better? Doesn't seem like much at first glance, but small decisions accumulate over time to create real long-term changes in your life. Each decision you make positions you differently for the next thing coming along. A small decision to have dessert after every meal doesn't mean much at the time but a few months later…
Small changes affect what your next starting point is going to be. Over time, they create a compounding effect that works exactly like compounding interest. Small changes compound to produce large results.
Small decisions directly affect your positioning. My friend Robert (name changed ) had just had a new baby when his job was unexpectedly eliminated. He had the stress of looking for a new job and providing for his family while going on very little sleep. One day, he had a flat. Not a big deal, he just changed the tire and went on his way. However, he didn't have the money right away to get the old tire fixed. Life stayed busy and a few months later, he was driving to a seminar when he had another flat. This time he had no spare. A tiny decision that eventually cost him the price of a tow truck and a missed seminar. Small decisions have an outsized effect on your life because they affect your starting point.
Rule of thumb #1 - Before I decide anything - Make sure I'm fit to decide using the H.A.L.T. rule: If I'm HUNGRY, ANGRY, LONELY, or TIRED - or if I'm overly excited or under any undue pressure I stop and regroup. I make it a personal rule to "sleep on it" in these situations.
Rule #2 - Ask "What information will I need to make a good decision? I overlook important factors if I don't think through what the key information is and what is irrelevant.
Rule #3 - Get a clear understanding of the problem. Make sure I'm solving the real problem and not just a symptom.
For the least consequential decisions, such as what to have for dinner, I try to adopt good habits and make them into already-decided things. This pre-commitment makes most choices easier. For example, every Tuesday evening after class, dinner is scrambled eggs and toast. (Because I'm usually exhausted after 3 hours of Aikido practice and teaching and because it has to be a light meal that's high in protein, but mostly because it's tasty and easy.)
Another example is to decide in advance you'll only eat dessert on Sundays. Make the decision when you're at your best and make it a personal rule. Other people don't seem to press as much when I say "I make it a rule to [insert personal rule here] ".
"Does it pass the sniff test?" To me, this means it lines up with the things I value, doesn't put my reputation or my opinion of myself at risk, and has no parts that are unethical or immoral. Every decision must meet my own standards, not just the most important ones. When any part of a decision doesn't pass my sniff test, I make it a personal rule to reject it altogether or adjust the decision accordingly.
When you're trying to decide between competing alternatives, take a minute to decide what's important and pick only from those that meet all of your minimum standards in the criteria you consider important. Anything you pick will at least be adequate.
Always make certain to choose from at least 3 options. Decisions like "Should we fire him or not?" are binary. Considering just one extra option (perhaps neither of the above is the best choice) can prevent you from coming to premature solutions.
To make a decision that's as unbiased as possible, imagine that you don't know where you'll be born, what race, sex, abilities and handicaps, or anything else you'll have. Would this be a fair decision for you?
Does this decision follow the platinum rule? Treat others as they would like to be treated. Does this decision maximize overall well-being and minimize suffering?
Many rules of thumb are useful only in narrow ways and some of them contradict others. For example, "Penny wise, pound foolish" contradicts "A penny saved is a penny earned." Select your own rules carefully.
I curate my own rules of thumb based on these criteria:
Does this rule reliably improve my chances of a good decision? Is it better than a coin flip?
Can this rule be applied broadly?
Does this rule encourage me to think of better alternatives?
Does it position me better for the future? Good positions create options, while bad positions reduce them. You don’t have to be an expert decision-maker to get better results, you only need to put yourself in a good position. Anyone looks like a genius when all the options are good.
Is it a rule that helps or minimizes harm to others? Is it prosocial?
Is it a proactive rule? Can you act on it to improve your position?
Does this rule fit into a systematic approach to making good decisions in general, even for trivial things?
Does it increase my chances of learning something while decreasing risk? Dipping a toe in the water is an example.
Does it help you find possible win-win solutions?
(BTW: I’m currently experimenting with prompts to teach an A.I. how to help me curate great rules of thumb by scoring any given rule based on the criteria above. It’s given me some very unexpected results so far.)
Thank you for spending your valuable time and attention with this post.
Please tell me one thing I can do to improve my next post!
Why this, why now? A note from Tony:
I’m launching this space to share thoughts and ideas that I’ve distilled from my long and eventful life that I think are worth passing on. I’d like to build a connection with my readers and learn from you and your perspectives in a space that lets us build on each other’s ideas.
I plan to post every week, or a little more often with projects that excite me. I’m always interested in learning, teaching, and sharing ideas and ways to live a great life.