Make Better Guesses

Veering a little closer to reality...

Steering closer to our course

Bad guesses are the silent saboteurs of our future. When it comes to life’s big questions—like how much to save for retirement or how long a project will take—guesses can be costly.

Base rate approximations give us a reality check. Don’t guess how long your project will take until you know the typical duration for someone with your skill level. For instance, a pro plumber might replace a toilet in 10 minutes, while an average homeowner could take 2 hours.

Thinking in probability adds nuance to our decisions. It’s not just about whether it’ll rain, but how likely it is. That project might take 3 to 6 months, but you’re 70% confident it’ll be closer to 4. This way, you’re prepared for the worst but hoping for the best.

Revising bets keeps you agile. New information? Change your estimates. It’s like rerouting your drive home based on traffic updates.

Removing biases means questioning your gut. Love that stock? Double-check why. We often overestimate our favorites and underestimate the rest. Negative thinking can be a powerful tool here. Imagine the project is finished and recount every obstacle you overcame. This mental exercise forces you to consider potential challenges and alternative approaches.

Fermi estimation helps when you need a quick ballpark figure. How much does an ostrich weigh? More than a man, less than a car. So, somewhere between 150 and 3000 pounds. Now you’ve got a range to work with.

Bayesian reasoning is about updating your guesses with new evidence. Think of it as adjusting your bet as the race goes on, not just at the start.

The payoff? You’ll make smarter decisions, save money, and avoid the stress of those “I didn’t see that coming” moments.

Sharpen your guessing game. Use these strategies, and you’ll find yourself making more informed, reality-based decisions. And that’s a bet worth taking.

That’s my perspective…

This post was crafted through a collaborative back-and-forth with an AI, harnessing the best of my thoughts and translating them into words for you, the reader.

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